NFL Player Props

NFL prop bets, market by market

NFL player props are priced off a player's expected role: how many passes he throws, how many carries or targets he gets. Role is set by the game plan, the injury report and the expected score, so most NFL prop movement happens on injury news during the week and on inactive lists about 90 minutes before kickoff. Props draw far less money than spreads, which is why the same player's line can sit half a yard or a full catch apart between books.

Passing yards

The quarterback prop with the most volume. It follows expected pass attempts, so a team expected to trail tends to throw more, and strong wind in an outdoor stadium tends to lower it. Books can differ on the line itself, not just the price, so compare both.

Passing touchdowns

Lined on a half number such as 1.5, with the price doing most of the work. Touchdowns are few per game, so a quarterback can have a good day by yardage and still land under.

Rushing yards

Mostly a running back prop, driven by carries more than by yards per carry. A split backfield or a back returning from injury makes the carry count, and so the line, harder to price.

Receiving yards

Follows targets. A receiver's yardage swings more game to game than his catches, so the receiving yards line carries more variance than the receptions line for the same player.

Receptions

Lined on catches. A short-pass role makes these steadier than yardage, which is why they're steadiest for slot receivers, tight ends and pass-catching backs, and why the over on popular players often costs more than even money.

More NFL research

• NFL Model record: Every NFL Official Pick graded in public: wins, losses, units and ROI.
• NFL Upset Tracker: The underdogs the model flags each week, and why.
• Why player props are harder to beat: The extra margin on props, worked through with real prices.

NFL player props FAQ

What are NFL player props?

Bets on one player's numbers in a single game rather than on the result: passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards or receptions. Each comes with a line, such as 64.5 receiving yards, and you bet over or under it.

Which NFL prop markets does Gambletron AI cover?

Passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards and receptions, compared across major US sportsbooks with each book's price set against the market's fair price (the vig removed).

How does the NFL Model read a player prop?

It sets the posted line against two numbers: the player's own average in that stat, and how the opponent has allowed that stat compared with the league average. If both point the same way it leans over or under; if not, it says there is no clear lean. Quarterback props get a deeper read that also weighs pressure, coverage matchups, recent starts and wind. The model's lean and the market's own lean are shown separately, so you can see where they disagree.

Does Gambletron AI make NFL prop picks?

No. NFL Official Picks are game bets, the spread or the moneyline, graded on the NFL Model record page. Player props are research: the model's lean and the best available price, for you to judge.

When is the best time to look at NFL props?

After the final injury report and again once inactives are posted, about 90 minutes before kickoff. A player ruled out changes the role of everyone around him, and books do not all reprice those teammates at the same speed.