Public graded history
NFL Model Record
Gambletron AI runs the numbers on every NFL game. Most assessments are research; a few per slate clear the model's qualifying threshold and become Official Picks. Every Official Pick is locked before kickoff and graded against the final score. The record below is every pick the NFL Model has made, totalled and broken down by bet type.
Overall record
NFL Model · all Official Picks
31-23-3
+5.22u
+9.2% · 57.4%
57 graded
By bet type
Spread
18-17-3
-0.21u
-0.6% · 51.4%
38 graded
Moneyline (ML)
13-6
+5.43u
+28.6% · 68.4%
19 graded
A unit is one standard stake. ROI is units divided by graded decisions. Pushes are counted but do not move units. Pending picks are published and locked but their games have not finished. Totals are hidden while the NFL totals model is in development. Week-by-week picks live on Betting Agents.
How the record is kept
Scores lock roughly fifteen minutes before each game's scheduled start — the NFL Model publishes its assessments through the day; Gambletron AI displays them. Once a game goes final, the result replaces the locked numbers and the pick is graded.
Most games on the slate are research, not picks. Only assessments clearing the NFL Model's qualifying threshold become Official Picks; every rejected assessment stays visible on the Betting Agents NFL tab so a reader can see what the model considered and declined.
Published weeks stay as they were graded, even when the scoring model changes. To see how the current version (v2) would have done in Weeks 1-5, as research, see the Scoring Model v2 page.
The Upset Tracker is research, not a pick
Alongside the Official Picks, the NFL Model publishes an Upset Tracker— a list of every underdog on the slate with the market's price plus the signals behind an upset flag. Each flagged underdog shows a status (Upset flag, On watch, Long shot), the factors the model weighs, and when a tracker record applies, its own historical hit rate on comparable flags. The Upset Tracker page carries this week's flagged dogs and the methodology; the interactive view with every signal and the line history lives on the NFL Matchups page. Not here — this page is Official Picks only.
What the record is, and what it isn't
It is every Official Pick the NFL Model has made since tracking opened, with the price locked before kickoff and the result graded from the final score. Nothing is dropped once published. It is not an audited account statement, a prediction, or a guarantee of future results. NFL has 17 games a week and a short season; a few weeks of picks is a small sample, and the right way to read this is as evidence, not proof.
The MLB Model's record is on the MLB Model Record page. For how to read a track record in general — including the sample sizes luck can swing on its own — see the track-record guide.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Gambletron AI NFL Model's public record?
- A running tally of every Official Pick the NFL Model has made, graded against the final score. The page shows the total plus the breakdown by bet type (Spread, Moneyline). Numbers only — the week-by-week picks with reasoning are on the Betting Agents page with a free account.
- What counts as an Official Pick?
- The NFL Model scores every game using form, matchup data, injuries, line movement and market context. Only games clearing the model's qualifying threshold at a positive edge become Official Picks, and from Week 6 a game gets at most one: the spread or moneyline with the larger edge. Everything below the threshold is published as research so you can see the calls the model considered and declined. Most games on the slate are research, not picks.
- How is a unit calculated?
- A unit is one standard stake. Wins and losses are summed into units based on the price locked before kickoff — a +120 winner adds 1.20u, a -150 winner adds about 0.67u, a loser subtracts the staked unit. ROI is units divided by graded decisions.
- What is the NFL Upset Tracker?
- A piece of research — not an Official Pick — that lists every underdog on the slate with the market's price plus the signals behind an upset flag. Each flagged underdog has a status (Upset flag, On watch, Long shot), the factors the model weighs, and when a tracker record applies, its own historical hit rate on comparable flags. The Upset Tracker lives on the Matchups page and inside each game's card.
- What's the difference between the NFL Model and the MLB Model?
- The MLB Model's record is tracked since May 26, 2026 across a daily slate. The NFL Model's record is tracked across a weekly slate — a different grading view because NFL is a weekly sport, not a daily one. Both publish Official Picks only when their qualifying thresholds are met; most games are research, not picks.
- Why aren't Totals shown on this page?
- The NFL Model's Totals side is in development and currently hidden across the site, including from the public record. When Totals go live, this page's by-bet-type grid will add a Totals card alongside Spread and Moneyline.
- Is Gambletron AI a sportsbook?
- No. Gambletron AI is an informational analytics platform. It never accepts wagers, holds funds, or places bets. 21+ only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Free account
See each week's picks and the reasoning
The weekly totals are public. The pick-by-pick view — each Official Pick with the model score, odds locked at kickoff, the key factors behind it, and the Upset Tracker's flags — is on the Betting Agents NFL tab with a free account. We don't take bets or ask for payment details.
Gambletron AI is an informational analytics platform, not a sportsbook. We never accept wagers, hold funds, or place bets. 21+ only.