Kelly

How much of your bankroll a price's edge justifies. Full Kelly grows a bankroll fastest but swings hard; half and quarter Kelly trade some growth for a much smoother ride.

Bet Inputs

Your Bankroll ($)

Auto-filled from your bankroll tracker.

Unit Size ($)

Your standard flat bet.

Bet Amount ($)

Auto from Kelly

Odds on Your Bet (American)

Market implied prob: 52.4%

Opposite Side Odds - optional (American)

Enter the other side's odds to auto-calculate fair win probability.

No-Vig Probability

50.1%-2.3% no edge

Vig removed: 4.50% - Break-even: 52.4% - estimated (4.5% vig assumed)

Expected Value

EV per $100 wagered

-$4.31

Fair win probability50.1%

Break-even probability52.4%

Edge-4.31%

Raw Kelly0 - no edge

No edge at this price: the fair win probability (50.1%) is at or below break-even (52.4%), so Kelly sizes it at 0.

Bet Sizes by Kelly Fraction

Click a size to select it - the growth projection below will update to match. Most pros use Half or Quarter Kelly.

No edge at this price, so every Kelly fraction is 0. Fair win probability (50.1%) is at or below break-even (52.4%).

Bankroll Growth Projection

No positive edge detected - projections unavailable.